Spring can bring a sense of momentum to the housing market. More listings, more conversations, more people thinking about making a move. But this year, the spring market in Canada feels a little different. Instead of a big surge, we’re seeing a market shaped by caution, uncertainty, and opportunity. Whether you’re buying, selling, refinancing, or just trying to make sense of what’s happening, here’s what you need to know about Canada’s Housing Market.
Rates Have Likely Bottomed Out
The Bank of Canada, along with many economists, believes the policy rate has likely reached the bottom of this cycle. That’s important because it signals that we may not see much more rate relief from here. For buyers and homeowners considering a refinance, this could make now a strong time to look at a 3-to-5-year mortgage term. Variable rates still offer a healthy discount today, but over the next couple of years, gradual increases are a real possibility. The key right now is not just chasing the lowest rate. It’s choosing the right strategy for your goals, your budget, and your peace of mind.
New Federal GST/HST Rebate for First-Time Home Buyers
There’s an important new federal incentive that could make buying a newly built home more affordable for first-time buyers in Canada. The Canadian federal First-Time Home Buyers GST/HST rebate applies to qualifying purchase agreements signed on or after May 27, 2025, and offers a full or partial refund of up to $50,000 on the GST or the federal portion of the HST paid on a new home. Here’s what you need to know about the first-time home buyer rebate>>
Buyer Demand Hasn’t Disappeared
The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a slower start to the year for home sales, but pointed to weather as a likely factor rather than a true market decline.
What stands out more is the pent-up demand still sitting in the background, especially among Canadians aged 25 to 40. This is the largest home-buying group in Canadian history, and many have spent the last few years sidelined by affordability challenges and tough market conditions. Now that rates appear to be at their lowest point, many of those buyers may be getting closer to re-entering the market.
CMHC Is Calling for a Flat Spring Market
CMHC’s 2026 housing outlook suggests we should expect a fairly flat spring market. Housing starts, sales, and prices are all projected to remain relatively steady.
Why? Because affordability remains stretched, carrying costs remain high, and uncertainty continues to affect confidence. Many Canadians are delaying major housing decisions while they wait for more stability. This is not a market driven by urgency. It’s a market driven by careful decision-making.
The U.S. Still Matters More Than We’d Like
A big part of the uncertainty comes from outside Canada. Tariff issues in the United States remain unresolved. A CUSMA review is scheduled for July 1. And with a new Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to be confirmed in May, there is plenty of attention on where monetary policy could go next. Whenever there is economic volatility south of the border, Canada feels it too. And right now, that uncertainty is adding pressure to an already cautious housing market.
This spring may not be dramatic, but it is important. Rates appear to have settled. Demand is still there. Affordability remains a challenge. And uncertainty is keeping many people from rushing into decisions. That means strategy matters. If you’re thinking about buying, refinancing, or making a change in your housing situation, this is the kind of market where having the right advice can make all the difference. The opportunities are there, but they belong to the people who are prepared.
